Experts Warn of Heightened COVID Risk Following Busy Weekend in California
With COVID-19 levels stubbornly high in California, health experts are cautioning that the recent Labor Day weekend, characterized by significant travel and social gatherings, might lead to an increase in virus transmission. This could potentially extend a summer surge that has already surpassed expectations in both intensity and duration.
Health professionals are closely watching data for any signs of a post-holiday increase, which could be attributed to several factors. Firstly, Americans were projected to travel in record numbers this year, and with elevated COVID-19 transmission rates across much of the country, there's a considerable risk of exposure.
Secondly, the coronavirus continues to evolve, becoming more transmissible through mutations.
Dr. Elizabeth Hudson from Kaiser Permanente Southern California noted, "People are not just back to pre-pandemic levels — travel is even more common now than before the pandemic."
"This means there's a real risk of coming into contact with someone who has COVID," she added. With many California schoolchildren already back in school, "this is, unfortunately, a prime weekend to potentially contract something."
California, along with 46 other states and the District of Columbia, is experiencing "high" or "very high" levels of the virus in wastewater, as reported by the CDC.
The Transportation Security Administration forecasted that the recent holiday weekend would be the busiest for Labor Day travel, with over 17 million people expected at airports.
Dr. Peter Chin-Hong from UC San Francisco commented, "A lot of people I know get COVID after returning from a trip. Be prepared for the possibility that those sniffles or symptoms might be COVID."
He emphasized the importance of testing for those at higher risk, like seniors and immunocompromised individuals, recommending early antiviral treatments like Paxlovid if they test positive, especially if not vaccinated recently.
At UCSF hospitals, most COVID-19 patients are in their 70s and 80s and haven't been vaccinated recently, according to Chin-Hong.
This summer's COVID wave in California and nationwide has been significantly longer than last year's. California has seen 12 weeks of "high" or "very high" virus levels in wastewater since June, compared to eight weeks last summer.
The surge is largely due to new, more contagious subvariants, with names like FLiRT, FLuQE, and deFLuQE, reflecting their mutations.
The predominant strain now, KP.3.1.1 with deFLuQE mutations, accounted for 42.2% of samples nationwide recently, up from 19.8% a month prior, per the CDC.
While hospitalizations and deaths from COVID have increased this summer, they remain lower than in previous waves, thanks to residual immunity from past vaccinations and infections.
For the week ending August 10, 881 COVID deaths were reported nationally, doubling from the start of summer.
In L.A. County, daily COVID deaths averaged 2.9 for the week ending August 6, up from one to two daily since early July.
Although there are indications that the wave might have peaked in some areas, experts caution against premature conclusions.
The CDC lists California among states where COVID-19 might be "declining" or "likely declining," but it's too early to confirm this trend. Earlier, California's status was "stable or uncertain" before transmission worsened again.
Dr. Hudson highlighted the unpredictability, noting, "We've seen patterns where after a peak, numbers rise again a few weeks later. This is a very uncertain time."
The combination of Labor Day activities and school reopenings could drive transmission higher, compounded by summer heat keeping people indoors in poorly ventilated spaces.
L.A. County's Public Health Department awaits more data to confirm if the summer peak has passed.
In L.A. County, recent sewage data showed virus levels at 86% of last winter's peak, with daily case reports down but still below the summer peak.
Reported cases are likely an undercount due to home testing and reduced overall testing, but trends remain useful for tracking the wave's progression.
Emergency room visits related to COVID-19 in L.A. County have been stable, hovering between 3.9% and 4.3%, with the latter being the season's high so far, compared to last summer's peak of 5.1%.
Statewide, the positivity rate for COVID tests has risen, reaching 13.7% for the week ending August 26, surpassing last winter and summer's peaks.
Chin-Hong believes California might have hit its peak, suggesting, "COVID has likely infected most susceptible individuals. We'll see more cases post-Labor Day, but it probably won't continue to rise."
As of Friday, UCSF hospitals had eight admitted COVID-positive patients, down from around 30 at the summer peak.
To curb spread, doctors advise those feeling unwell to stay home and test, even if initial rapid tests are negative, recommending daily or every-other-day testing for five days post-symptom onset.
For travelers, wearing masks indoors, like in airports, can reduce infection risk.
The CDC recommends vaccinations for everyone over six months for the 2024-25 season, ideally in September or October.
Vaccines from Moderna, Pfizer, and recently Novavax, using older protein technology, are available. Novavax might appeal to those wary of mRNA vaccine side effects like arm swelling or fever.
While Novavax targets an older subvariant, experts believe it still offers good protection. Side effects from mRNA vaccines are typically mild and brief, Hudson noted, affecting about 25% of recipients.
Doctors recommend scheduling vaccinations when you can rest afterward.
Vaccines are widely available at pharmacies and health systems like Kaiser Permanente, with plans for free doses for the uninsured through public health clinics and funding for vaccine distribution.
Last year's Bridge Access Program for free vaccines for the uninsured ended in late August.